OCEAN-CERTAIN participants will work in continuous cooperation with stakeholders to explore their vulnerability to the observed effects of these interactions, their adaptive capacity and possible political and social mitigation options.

Stakeholders can be defined as “…any group or individual who can affect, or is affected by, the achievement of the organization’s objectives” (Freeman 2010). This is a broad definition and leaves the concept of having a stake, or invested interests, unequivocally open to include virtually anything, any topic, and the jurisdiction of a given stakeholder open to anyone.

The principle of stakeholder involvement is to ensure that local stakeholders, including environmental NGOs, are involved at all level of interest in the governance process. Understanding how groups of key stakeholders perceive potential changes will affect them is essential in guiding managers to identify and assess how stakeholder perceptions compare to scientific analysis of impacts, and their adaptive capacity to these. This is important because governments of democratic nations make laws that influence stakeholders by shaping and regulating them, and this is no different in terms of adaptation to the effects of climate change.

OCEAN-CERTAIN is designed to capture stakeholder perceptions using participatory model building.  Incorporating dynamic human input to rachel tiller ocean-certain workshop vensim bayesian belief network wp3ecosystems as they change remains one of the main challenges in modeling climate change and its impact (Adger 2006). OCEAN-CERTAIN will tackle this problem by tapping into stakeholders’ perceptions of vulnerability and predicting their likely behavior in certain circumstances. OCEAN-CERTAIN will use and improve upon innovate techniques to ascertain stakeholders’ perceptions about climate and to adapt their input for use in selecting impacts and feedbacks (WP 2), modeling the ecosystem (WP 2) and developing decision support systems that respond to the needs of the end users (WP 5).

OCEAN-CERTAIN draws upon the pioneering work of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQ-CARI), a regional-level research project in Australia that applied two existing modeling methodologies (Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Networks (ST and BBN)) to tap into the perceptions of agents acting within a system (Richards et al., 2012). These methods allow researchers to capture elusive, non-quantified information and to quantify it a way suitable for inclusion into climate change models and scenario construction, and provide for direct interaction among stakeholders and between stakeholders and researchers.