Upcoming Events

IMBIZO5 @ Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Oct 2 @ 6:12 pm – Oct 5 @ 7:12 pm

imbizo5_web-banner-1OCEAN CERTAIN will be present at the IMBIZO5 conference in Woods Hole.

The fifth IMBeR IMBIZO (the Zulu word for a gathering) will be hosted by the Ocean, Carbon & Biogeochemistry Group at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA from 2-5 October 2017. The aim of the IMBIZO 5 is to progress the implementation of the new IMBeR Science Plan (2016-2025). The overall theme of the meeting is Marine biosphere research for a sustainable ocean: Linking ecosystems, future states and resource management. This is the basis of the science plan where the research goal is to Understand, quantify and compare the historic and present structure and functioning of linked ocean and human systems to predict and project changes including developing scenarios and options for securing or transitioning towards ocean sustainability.

The meeting will consist of three concurrent but interacting workshops, with joint plenary and poster sessions. This format has previously been successful in promoting discussion between disciplinary experts, in developing interaction between biogeochemical, ecological and social science research, and in producing synthesis papers and journal special issues. To optimize participant interactions, each of the three workshops will be restricted to 40 participants. The themes of the workshops highlight the direction of IMBeR science over the next ten years, and the scales and interactions that will be explored.

We were accepted with an interdisciplinary paper,  titled: REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TRANSDISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE DATA IN A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM – we will present this in Workshop 1: Critical constraints on projections.

This is our abstract:



Tiller, R.; De Kok, J.L.; Ardelan, M.; Tsagaraki, T.

Stakeholders are increasingly being sought out for their opinions on environmental policy. The direct inclusion of their perceptions in environmental models, however, has been limited given the challenges in among others incorporating non-numerical data into mathematical models. However, excluding stakeholders from the model-building process can lead to models that provide policy advice that prove difficult to implement because of a lack of stakeholder acceptance of model results (legitimacy). Natural resource management is one area where stakeholder engagement in the ‘modelling process’ has strong efficacy. For example, the projected increase in sea surface temperature due to climate change, and the pivotal role of the microbial food web in determining carbon cycling in the euphotic zone, is expected to facilitate large changes in the marine food web under different scenarios. An integrated model as such will give scenarios to regional marine or coastal authorities and stakeholders  on the long-term changes in fisheries or aquaculture productivity, and how this could affect local communities in their area. We explore this approach with qualitative data from stakeholder driven workshops in Northern Norway that have been quantified by combining systems thinking with fuzzy cognitive mapping. We then integrated this data with a combination of ecosystem- and climate models and experimental outputs that take into account the effects of increased carbon inputs in Arctic ecosystems and the structure and function of the food web, and combine this into an operational decision support system. This integration helps us identify the relevant stakeholder perceptions of challenges, opportunities and adaptive capacity under different climate- and ecosystem scenarios and how these translate into real-life perceptions on the effect of these changes. This information is useful for management purposes, and as such is a working example of an integrated system that can be applicable to other geographical and issue areas.